How a First Number Shapes an Estimate
Written by Studio AM.
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When we judge an unknown quantity, the mind reaches for a starting point and adjusts from there. The trouble is that the starting point need not be relevant, and the adjustment is usually too small. A figure we encounter, even an arbitrary one, can pull our estimate toward itself. Psychologists call this the anchoring effect.
The pull is surprisingly strong. In studies, people asked whether a quantity is higher or lower than some random number, perhaps drawn from a spin of a wheel, often give later estimates that drift toward that number. They do not believe the wheel knows anything, and yet their guesses bend toward it. An anchor can influence an estimate even when we are told to ignore it.
This quietly shapes the marketplace. A high original price printed beside a sale price makes the sale feel generous, because the original anchors our sense of what the item is worth. A first offer in a negotiation can influence later counteroffers. That may give the first speaker an advantage, although an offer can also reveal information the other person uses against them. The outcome depends on more than who speaks first.
Rather than assume you are immune, ask deliberately what evidence supports an estimate. Comparing market prices or preparing a target before a discussion gives you another basis for judgment. These steps can help challenge an anchor, although they do not guarantee an unbiased decision.
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Questions
Choose an answer. The explanation appears after you answer.
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Question 1 of 5
The passage is mainly about
The answer is B: how a first number biases later estimates
The passage defines and illustrates the anchoring effect: a first number pulls our estimates toward it.
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Question 2 of 5
Why can naming a first number give a negotiator an advantage?
The answer is B: It can influence the starting point for later offers.
The opening number may anchor later offers. The passage also notes that revealing information can create a disadvantage.
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Question 3 of 5
What does the passage recommend as a defense against anchoring?
The answer is B: Preparing a target and checking independent evidence
The last paragraph recommends using market prices or a prepared target as another basis for judgment, without promising complete protection.
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Question 4 of 5
As used in the passage, "arbitrary" most nearly means:
The answer is B: chosen without meaningful reason
The passage's example is a number "drawn from a spin of a wheel": random, connected to nothing. An arbitrary starting point is one with no real basis, yet it still tugs our estimate toward itself.
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Question 5 of 5
What does the passage say about being told to ignore an anchor?
The answer is D: The anchor can still influence an estimate.
The second paragraph says an anchor can influence an estimate even when a person is told to ignore it.
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