The Chessboard and the Rice

Written by Studio AM.

A quantity can grow by adding the same amount at each step or by multiplying by the same factor. Starting at one and adding one gives one, two, three, four. Doubling instead gives one, two, four, eight. Both sequences begin with small numbers, but their later values are very different.

An old chessboard story illustrates the difference. A ruler offers a reward, and someone asks for grains of rice: one on the first square, two on the second, four on the third, doubling across all sixty-four. By the eleventh square, that square alone requires 1,024 grains. The sixty-fourth requires more than nine quintillion. The small starting amount is misleading if intuition replaces calculation.

Repeated doubling is one example of exponential growth. A fixed percentage increase also compounds, though it does not necessarily double at every step. The extra amount grows because the percentage applies to an increasingly large total. For example, a ten percent increase adds ten to one hundred but twenty to two hundred.

The chessboard follows a mathematical rule. Real technologies and populations need not keep that rule indefinitely: resources, demand and other conditions can limit growth. A useful forecast therefore asks both how quickly a quantity is changing and whether that rate is likely to continue. An overwhelming total calculated from repeated doubling shows what the assumption implies, not a promise that the world will follow it.

Questions

Choose an answer. The explanation appears after you answer.

  1. Question 1 of 4

    What is the passage mainly about?

  2. Question 2 of 4

    In the chessboard story, how does the amount of rice change from one square to the next?

  3. Question 3 of 4

    Why would the chessboard rule alone be insufficient to forecast a real population?

  4. Question 4 of 4

    What does 'intuition' mean in this passage?

Score: none answered yet.

More passages

Practise reading