Update after a draw

Track the changing counts when an object is not replaced.

Remove the object you drew

A bag contains 5 red counters and 3 blue counters. Each draw chooses uniformly from the counters still in the bag. Draws are without replacement.

The first red chance is 5/8. If that counter is red, 4 red and 3 blue remain, so the next red chance is 4/7. Both the favorable count and the total change.

RedBlueΣ538−14374 + 3 = 7
After one red is removed, the bag holds 4 red and 3 blue counters.

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First lesson in this subject: Count equally likely outcomes

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