Subtract the cost and weight every net outcome by its probability.
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First lesson in this subject: Count equally likely outcomes
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Game A costs 2 points for every roll of a fair six-sided die. A 6 pays a gross prize of 18 points; the other faces pay nothing. Net points equal prize minus cost.
The net result is 16 on one face and −2 on each of five faces. Game B instead gives 2 net points for certain, with no additional cost.
You are reading the opening. Members read every lesson and guide in full. A free account reads the first lesson in each subject in full.
You are reading the opening. Your free account reads the first lesson in each subject in full. Members read every lesson and guide in full.
First lesson in this subject: Count equally likely outcomes
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Practice · Try point games and discover when a big prize, a better average and a better chance mean different things.
Book · Count outcomes, update chances with new information, and compare decisions through worked examples.
Previous lesson · Explain why the same empty door can lead to different odds.
Next lesson · Use complements and disjoint cases to compare multi-roll targets.
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