Compare the guaranteed bank with the average final score. The best single card does not determine the average.
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First lesson in this subject: Count equally likely outcomes
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With one draw left, stopping keeps the bank. Drawing adds one equally likely card. Add all remaining card values and divide by the number of cards to find the average gain. A positive average favors drawing; a negative average favors stopping.
Bank: 27 points · Draws left: 1
Stop to keep your bank. Or take the final card and add its value to your bank. Keep the resulting score. Drawn cards are removed. Negative scores are allowed.
You are reading the opening. Members read every lesson and guide in full. A free account reads the first lesson in each subject in full.
You are reading the opening. Your free account reads the first lesson in each subject in full. Members read every lesson and guide in full.
First lesson in this subject: Count equally likely outcomes
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Practice · Use a changing deck to decide whether another draw is worth taking.
Book · Count outcomes, update chances with new information, and compare decisions through worked examples.
Previous lesson · Separate independent components from routes that share a bottleneck, then compare two upgrades.
Next lesson · Balance sequences within each equal-probability group. Repeating the same independent procedure preserves that balance.
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